After Donald Trump returns to office, the question of Taiwan’s role in U.S.–China relations will once again move to the center of global attention. During Trump’s first term, U.S. policy toward China was highly transactional, confrontational, and unpredictable. Tariffs, sanctions, and abrupt diplomatic signals became standard tools. Under such a framework, many in Taiwan worry that the island could become either a bargaining chip in U.S.–China negotiations or a flashpoint in an escalating great-power conflict.
Trump’s worldview is shaped less by ideology than by leverage. He tends to frame international relations as deals in which costs, benefits, and visible gains matter more than long-standing norms. In this context, Taiwan’s strategic value is undeniable. It sits at the center of the first island chain, dominates critical semiconductor manufacturing, and represents a democratic system that contrasts sharply with China’s authoritarian model. These factors give Taiwan leverage—but they also make it vulnerable to being instrumentalized.
On one hand, Trump could treat Taiwan as a pressure tool against Beijing. Arms sales, high-level political contacts, and explicit security signals can be used to raise the cost of Chinese assertiveness. From this perspective, Taiwan becomes a strategic card that strengthens U.S. negotiating power. Trump’s first term already demonstrated this tendency, with record arms sales to Taiwan and increasingly blunt rhetoric toward China. In such a scenario, Taiwan benefits from heightened U.S. support, but that support is conditional and interest-driven rather than values-based.
On the other hand, Trump’s transactional style also raises the risk of sudden reversals. If Beijing offers concessions on trade, market access, or geopolitical cooperation elsewhere, Taiwan could theoretically be downplayed or sidelined. While a complete “trade-off” of Taiwan is unlikely due to U.S. institutional constraints and bipartisan skepticism toward China, ambiguity itself creates uncertainty. For Taiwan, unpredictability is a strategic liability, especially when facing a neighbor that thrives on exploiting gray zones and miscalculation.
Regarding the risk of war, a second Trump presidency could have contradictory effects. His confrontational posture might deter China by signaling a willingness to escalate and impose severe costs. At the same time, unclear red lines and improvisational decision-making could increase the risk of crisis escalation. China may test U.S. resolve through coercive actions short of war, while Taiwan could find itself caught between signaling firmness and avoiding provocation.
Ultimately, whether Taiwan is merely a “chess piece” depends not only on Washington and Beijing, but also on Taipei’s own strategy. Taiwan’s greatest protection lies in reducing its replaceability: strengthening defense readiness, diversifying economic ties, deepening relations with multiple democracies, and maintaining domestic unity. The more Taiwan is seen as an indispensable partner rather than a negotiable asset, the harder it becomes to trade away.
In a Trump-era geopolitical landscape, Taiwan is unlikely to be ignored—but it will be constantly weighed, leveraged, and tested. The challenge for Taiwan is not to avoid being on the chessboard, but to ensure it is a player with agency, not just a piece moved by others.
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