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Understanding the Seizure of the Legco in Hong Kong

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As every bully knows, if you push your hapless ‘victim’ far enough, they will eventually lash out in an attempt to defend themselves. And in that case, who exactly is to blame?

Couple weeks ago, hundreds of mainly youngish protestors in Hong Kong broke into the Legislative Council (Legco) building – the place where the local government works – and unleashed their fury on it. They smashed glass doors, graffitied the walls with slogans like “anti-fugitive law” (a reference to the legislation that ignited the protests in the first place), “universal suffrage” and “Carrie Lam step down” (Lam is the city’s current Chief Executive). And they tore portraits of past Legco presidents off the wall, broke computers and messed with the building’s electrical wiring. However, they also paid for the drinks they took from the cafeteria, put a note in the library that said “protect antiques, no damages,” and didn’t really hurt anyone in the process. Overall, they caused about HK$60 million in damage and ground government meetings to a halt for the near future.

HongKong protesters stand up for their rights. photo: Vox
HongKong protesters stand up for their rights. photo: Vox

This was big news in Hong Kong, of course – as well as around the world – and the reaction to it was swift and polarizing. Lam, pro-establishment lawmakers, business heads and religious leaders, among others, condemned the violence of the protestors’ actions (with said lawmakers dubbing it “the darkest day of the 176 years of Legco history”), while pro-democracy lawmakers and many young, fed-up citizens, although not necessarily condoning the violence, asked people to try to understand the reasons behind it. Essentially, the event divided Hong Kong society even further over the controversial extradition bill (also known as the fugitive bill, which would have created an extradition arrangement with mainland China for the first time).

I recently went to Hong Kong myself, arriving there a day or so after the Legco break-in occurred, and was greeted by nonstop news coverage of it. TVs in restaurants were showing guys in black shirts, hardhats, goggles and work masks slamming battering rams into the glass door of a building and then running amok inside, before eventually scampering away before the police arrived. It was a startling and unexpected spectacle for me, as I hadn’t read the news in a couple days and had no idea what was going on. But now, as I’ve had some time to digest these events, I’d like to try – like the pro-democracy lawmakers suggested – to understand what happened. Because isn’t a bit presumptuous to judge someone without first attempting to understand them?

The first thing to note is that most Hong Kongers (and all the people I spoke to in person) seem to support the protesters. What they don’t support, however, is the use of violence or the smashing government buildings. And, in fact, the kind of violence associated with the Legco occupation appears to be an aberration in the ongoing protests. I happened to witness one while I was there, and, although it was massive – like a sea of black-shirted people in the streets – it was generally peaceful. Whole families came out, people chanted what sounded like uplifting slogans, it was organized, and the streets were kept clean. It felt positive, somehow, as though all those people had turned up to express their solidarity and feelings about the government in a healthy way, without wishing to harm anyone. And aside from that one protest I attended, life in the city every other day was completely normal, so it wasn’t like the protesters had damaged the fabric of society or anything.

The other thing to keep in mind here is context. If you go back to the Umbrella Movement of 2014, where hundreds of thousands of people came out to demonstrate against the nondemocratic way Hong Kong’s Chief Executive is selected, you’ll see that the government’s response was basically nothing, as it simply ignored the protesters’ gripes. Then, more recently, when about 2 million folks took to the streets on June 12th to show their opposition to the extradition bill, the government again failed to react to protesters’ demands, which currently include the complete withdraw of the suspended fugitive bill, the release of arrested protesters without charge (like what happened during Taiwan’s Sunflower movement), and an independent investigation into the excessive use of force by police. Also, according to some analysts, the lack of universal voting rights in Hong Kong has led to growing resentment among citizens and widespread distrust of the government, and many people have begun feeling hopeless – and helpless – about their future prospects. In fact, there are reports of young people committing suicide over the extradition bill, a shocking and disturbing indication of how important these issues are to them.

So given this all of this, is it fair to flat-out condemn those radicals who attacked the Legco? I mean, if you were trying to tell someone something over and over again, and they wouldn’t listen, what would you do? Maybe you’d try to find another way to get their attention, which is kind of what those protesters did. By taking over one of the most ‘sacred’ and visible spaces in Hong Kong, they put everyone on notice – the Hong Kong government and their puppet masters (the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)), as well as the world at large – that this is extremely serious business for them, and they won’t be going away quietly.

And we also need to acknowledge that violence breeds violence. If you consider the CCP’s actions in recent years regarding its increasingly severe oppression of the Uighurs and Tibetan minorities in China, as well as its general lack of respect for Hong Kong’s autonomy as outlined in the handover treaty signed with the British, you might say that Beijing was one of the more subtly violent governments on Earth. Seen from this perspective, the words of young Hong Kongers somehow ring true, such as those of 18-year-old Sunny Lau Nok-Hing, who thinks the violence of the protesters was “a response towards the legislative violence under this unfair political system.”

As every bully knows, if you push your hapless ‘victim’ far enough, they will eventually lash out in an attempt to defend themselves. And in that case, who exactly is to blame? Is it the bully, who day by day took away his victim’s fundamental rights just because he could, or the victim, who after being mistreated for so long, suddenly decided to stand up for himself and punch the bully in the face?

Author / Peter K. Thompson

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2019-07-18 Peter K. Thompson

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假如有一天中國在台灣海峽開啟戰爭,國際是否支援台灣?先講結論,會。但會在什麼情境下支援升級到什麼程度,需視衝突規模而定。國際政治從來不是民主遊戲,而是賽局博弈,不能簡單用道德價值觀判斷。 依據目前的情況,若台海發生戰爭,中國可能有幾種方式攻占台灣: (一)灰色封鎖戰術:以不明說開戰的方式,直接封鎖台灣的重要物資,希望製造外資與供應鏈的撤離,製造台灣社會恐慌,期望讓受不了壓力的台灣政府簽下類似和平協議,或達成讓親中政權上台的構想。 (二)攻佔外島:短時間攻佔金門、馬祖等離島,營造戰爭情勢大好的氛圍,而台灣當局可能因為爭論是否保衛離島而分裂,同樣期望台灣社會恐慌,期望台灣政府因害怕戰爭,而簽下和平協議。但若操作失敗,可能導致戰爭因此擴大。 (三)直接登陸台灣:若中國想要直接統治台灣,會選擇直接登陸,也就是「武統」,而中國武統有兩種途徑:從北部登陸,期望透過快速攻佔首都的方式,實施政權輪替。或者從中南東部登陸,期望透過蠶食鯨吞的方法,佔領全台灣。 由於台灣海峽在世界經濟占據重要地位,若台灣發生戰爭,國際會依實際情況有不同的支援方式: (一)灰色封鎖戰術:對於世界各國而言,灰色封鎖戰術形同挑戰國際航行自由,各國可能會派遣航空兵力巡邏,並討論對封鎖方的制裁方案,緊急支援台灣的能源與醫療資源。由於這時間點並不算是真正構成戰爭,因此各國可能從外交同盟與經濟制裁並進的手段慢慢升級,考驗社會耐心。 (二)攻佔外島:若對岸短時間攻佔金門、馬祖等離島,各國容易視中國為「明確開戰」,但還沒上升到全面熱戰的地步,更接近俄羅斯攻佔克里米亞的情況,國際最有可能的支援是「軍援台灣」,希望提高嚇阻力,阻擋中國政權更進一步。但避免為了幾個小島升級戰況,各國的作為可能更謹慎,將考驗台灣政府的敘事能力,若情勢不對,台灣反倒可能遭國際施壓。 (三)直接登陸台灣:假如中國決定攻占台灣,各國的回應將會強烈,包括大規模軍援、全面制裁、供應鏈切割等方式,但每個國家情況不同,太平洋的國家更傾向干涉,歐亞的國家更傾向與低度的支援,但是否直接參戰的關鍵在於,各國判斷「保衛台灣的利益是否足以付出將士的性命」以及「戰爭後續是否會升級為核風險」。若各國若介入戰爭,首先的作為可能是巡邏台灣海峽,測試中國的反應;再者提供衛星情報協助國軍防禦;以及轟炸中國的軍事基地,實施有限度的介入;最後才可能走向直接參戰。若不幸發生「核戰爭」,則戰況將升級為世界大戰,國際將會走向殲滅政權的總體戰,到時不是支援與否的問題了。 雖然台海有難,會獲得國際相助,但是在賽局博弈的場合,「錦上添花」才是常態,台灣必須展現足夠的社會韌性、堅強備戰的決心,這樣世界人民才有信心押寶台灣。如果是極端脆弱、政府人民立場搖擺的台灣,想必各國看了也不願押寶,即使降下神兵天將也難救了 作者/Oscar

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