{"id":33784,"date":"2025-08-14T16:48:16","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T08:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?p=33784"},"modified":"2025-09-01T22:32:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T14:32:15","slug":"will-the-kmt-and-tpp-monopolize-or-share-the-spoils","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?p=33784","title":{"rendered":"Will the KMT and TPP Monopolize or Share the Spoils?"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

On August 11, 2025, Taiwan People\u2019s Party (TPP) legislator Huang Kuo-chang formally announced his candidacy for the 2026 New Taipei City mayoral election. Speaking with deliberate ambiguity, he remarked that he had \u201cnever ruled out the possibility of the opposition jointly supporting the strongest candidate.\u201d While this might sound innocuous, it was in fact a political shockwave for the New Taipei race. For the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Huang\u2019s move not only adds another competitor but could also serve as a catalyst for KMT\u2013TPP cooperation, potentially altering the political landscape of not just New Taipei, but local elections nationwide.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Although the KMT and TPP have cooperated in past recall efforts, such cooperation may, in the long run, prove to be \u201csingle-benefit\u201d rather than mutually beneficial\u2014serving one side more than the other. The TPP has long positioned itself as a \u201creformist force beyond blue and green\u201d on Taiwan\u2019s political spectrum. Yet in recent years, from legislative behavior to local issue stances, its policy alignment with the KMT has led outsiders to question whether the TPP is drifting toward the blue camp. Huang\u2019s mayoral run could, on one hand, use the TPP brand to appeal to centrist voters, while on the other hand, echo KMT positions on certain issues\u2014leaving room for cooperation talks between the two camps. For Huang, running may not necessarily be about winning outright, but rather about leveraging his candidacy as a bargaining chip. If the KMT and TPP decide to unite at the last moment, Huang could trade his high polling numbers for a vice mayoral slot, policy concessions, or future cooperation in legislative elections. His skill in \u201cleveraging the old to bring in the new\u201d is already evident; under the recently activated \u201ctwo-year rule,\u201d TPP legislators have been replaced with new faces\u2014moves that could benefit his electoral ambitions by currying favor with fresh lawmakers.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Given Ko Wen-je\u2019s failed attempt at a KMT\u2013TPP alliance during the 2024 presidential race, any cooperation in New Taipei will proceed with extreme caution. Mutual trust between the two camps is based more on shared hostility toward the DPP and political interests than on genuine alignment. On the surface, such cooperation appears mutually beneficial: the KMT could gain middle-ground and youth votes, while the TPP would obtain local resources and organizational strength, increasing their combined chances of defeating the DPP candidate. However, structurally, this arrangement leans toward \u201csingle-benefit,\u201d with the advantage tilting heavily toward the KMT.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

From a vote-base perspective, the KMT\u2019s support in New Taipei far outweighs the TPP\u2019s. Even in a united front, the KMT would still hold the dominant position, and the TPP could end up relegated to a supporting role. In the long term, the KMT could absorb TPP supporters, but the reverse transfer is limited\u2014gradually diluting the TPP\u2019s brand and weakening its independent viability. The history of KMT\u2013PFP cooperation shows that alliances often involve talent poaching. Beyond resource disparity, cross-strait relations still anchor the KMT\u2019s political consensus with Beijing, leaving the TPP as little more than a pawn to counterbalance the DPP. Who ultimately uses whom remains an open question.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Moreover, the KMT has long held the misconception that young voters are loyal to Ko Wen-je and the TPP. In reality, youth votes are highly fluid, often driven by opposition to the ruling party rather than steadfast party allegiance. This leads to frequent overestimations of support rates. Given the last failed KMT\u2013TPP cooperation, it remains uncertain whether a \u201cvote abandonment\u201d effect would occur in a local election. The KMT, with its stronger local foundation, has little necessity to concede New Taipei. Otherwise, it could risk \u201craising a tiger to invite trouble,\u201d as the DPP once did with Ko Wen-je\u2014only to later be abandoned.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

As for the DPP, it must remain vigilant. The current dynamics could easily evolve into a three-way contest. But overplaying its hand could prompt the KMT and TPP to join forces against it, thereby strengthening their unity. In such an uncertain and fluid situation, a low-profile approach may be the wiser strategy.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Looking at the broader picture, the New Taipei mayoral race is unlikely to be a straightforward KMT\u2013DPP showdown. Instead, it is shaping up to be a strategic three-way contest among the KMT, DPP, and TPP. The DPP will likely anchor its campaign narrative on municipal governance issues. If the race escalates into a partisan battle, the DPP risks being dragged into the KMT\u2013TPP agenda, especially if Ko Wen-je \u201ccomes out of seclusion\u201d and turns the local election into a theater of political resentment\u2014causing the real issues to fade from focus.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On August 11, 2025, Taiwan People\u2019s Party (TPP) legislator Huang Kuo-chang formally announced his candidacy for the 2026 New Taipei City mayoral election. Speaking with deliberate ambiguity, he remarked that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6553,"featured_media":33785,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[6937,3960,9,6941,4,7,8,3],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-33784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-6937","category-english","category-9","category-6941","category-4","category-7","category-8","category-3"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paVpJN-8MU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":34965,"url":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?p=34965","url_meta":{"origin":33784,"position":0},"title":"Taiwan\u2019s 2026 Local Elections: A Shift in Political Balance","author":"Cathy Lin","date":"2026-01-19","format":false,"excerpt":"Taiwan\u2019s 2026 local elections will take place amid a rapidly evolving political landscape shaped by the 2024 presidential transition and the emergence of a competitive three-party system. While local contests often diverge from national voting trends, this cycle is likely to be more strongly influenced by national issues such as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "2026"","block_context":{"text":"2026","link":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?cat=6943"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newcongress.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Taiwans-2026-Local-Elections-A-Shift-in-Political-Balance.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":34002,"url":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?p=34002","url_meta":{"origin":33784,"position":1},"title":"Two-way leadership among Taiwan People’s Party","author":"New Congress","date":"2025-09-06","format":false,"excerpt":"The People's Party's very own leader--Ko, has finally been released, and with his return, the party now faces two major problems. First off, let's be honest: the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) has always revolved around Ko Wen-je. No one dares speak or act without Ko\u2019s signal. Everything they did while\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "2025"","block_context":{"text":"2025","link":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?cat=6937"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newcongress.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ayatollah-Ko-menei.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":34022,"url":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?p=34022","url_meta":{"origin":33784,"position":2},"title":"Ko Wen-Je\u2019s Bail Dilemma and the Battle for Party Leadership","author":"New Congress","date":"2025-09-07","format":false,"excerpt":"Ko Wen-je, the former Taipei mayor and chairman of the Taiwan People\u2019s Party (TPP), has long cultivated an image of blunt honesty and pragmatic reform. Yet recent events surrounding his decision to delay bail, followed by his eventual acceptance of bail terms, have raised serious questions about whether his actions\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "2025"","block_context":{"text":"2025","link":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?cat=6937"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newcongress.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/%E6%B0%91%E7%9C%BE%E9%BB%A8%E5%8F%88%E7%99%BC%E4%BD%88%E3%80%8C%E5%B0%8F%E8%8D%89%E5%8B%95%E5%93%A1%E4%BB%A4%E3%80%8D%EF%BC%8C%E8%A6%81%E3%80%8C%E5%B0%8F%E8%8D%89%E8%BB%8D%E5%80%91%E3%80%8D98-%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%E4%B8%80%E9%BB%9E%E6%BA%96%E6%99%82%E9%9B%86%E5%90%88-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":33719,"url":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?p=33719","url_meta":{"origin":33784,"position":3},"title":"Does the Democratic Progressive Party Still Have the Capacity to Take Responsibility?","author":"New Congress","date":"2025-08-05","format":false,"excerpt":"The results of Taiwan\u2019s July 26 recall election revealed a complete defeat for the pro-recall side, with the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People\u2019s Party (TPP) sweeping all contested districts. While civic groups poured energy into the campaign, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leadership appeared indifferent, despite being targeted by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "2025"","block_context":{"text":"2025","link":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?cat=6937"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newcongress.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2000x2000_0582523054247.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":33915,"url":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?p=33915","url_meta":{"origin":33784,"position":4},"title":"U.S. Dual-Track Strategy","author":"Cathy Lin","date":"2025-08-27","format":false,"excerpt":"On August 21st, American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Raymond Greene met with Taiwan\u2019s Minister of National Defense, Wellington Koo. The following day, he sat down with five Kuomintang (KMT) legislators. In just two days, Greene held back-to-back discussions with both the ruling government and the opposition, underscoring Washington\u2019s dual-track\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "2025"","block_context":{"text":"2025","link":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?cat=6937"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newcongress.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AIT-Director-Raymond-Greene-met-with-Taiwans-Minister-of-National-Defense-Wellington-Koo.-The-following-day-he-sat-down-with-five-Kuomintang-KMT-legislators.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":34087,"url":"https:\/\/newcongress.tw\/?p=34087","url_meta":{"origin":33784,"position":5},"title":"Ko Wen-je Returns: Will the TPP Descend into Chaos?","author":"\u65b0\u516c\u6c11\u8b70\u6703","date":"2025-09-16","format":false,"excerpt":"Ko Wen-je has returned home. Does this signal the beginning of turmoil within the Taiwan People\u2019s Party (TPP)? Political insiders in Taipei do not think so. 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